2020 F1 Season in Doubt

The entire world has been rocked by the COVID-19 pandemic that’s infiltrated every aspect of life: travel, education, work, shopping, and even our getaway from life; sport.

For a fleeting while in March, it looked as though Formula One would defy the odds (and common sense) to stage at least one race. It wasn’t to be, and quite rightly so.

Cash is king, and the might of its rule has become even more evident. The trickle-down economics of Formula One were laid bare in the days ahead of the scheduled Australian Grand Prix. As were many questions that needed to be answered: if the race doesn’t go ahead, fans need to be refunded, right?

If fans aren’t paying for tickets, can the venue recoup their fee to stage the race? If the venue cancels, will they get their fee back? What if the promoters cancel? Or the FIA? Do the broadcasters have to pay for a show they don’t air? Do the teams get reduced prize money? If the teams don’t get paid, can they pay their employees?

Most of these were raised for just one race, let alone the 22 scheduled for this year. You can understand why everyone appears keen for something resembling a season to go ahead.

The latest we’ve heard is that Liberty Media, the commercial rights holders, won’t receive full broadcaster payments if fewer than fifteen races get staged. That’s a cool £500m at stake. Which explains why we are seeing race postponements rather than race cancellations.

Of course, nobody knows how long the pandemic will cripple the world. Yet plans continue to be made in case things get better by May… June… July…? It’s prudent to prepare, but frequently futile.

A sport as global as Formula One will face an immense challenge this year. Staff and fans of virtually every nationality on the planet, flying to and from most continents. Watching that unfold will be entertainment in its own right. But on track, how would a shorter season like the one currently under discussion look?

Let’s remember the recent season lengths have been the longest ever. 2016, 2018, and 2019 with 21 races would’ve sounded unfathomable a couple of decades prior. Improvements in communication, logistics, and travel have enabled long and country-diverse seasons.

As recently as 2003 we had sixteen races for the season. A season that finished with Raikkonen only 2 points behind Schumacher after the finale in Japan, albeit with a different points structure.

The ’90s saw either sixteen or seventeen races every year. These played host to nail-biting championships mostly involving Schumacher and a rival Brit, Canadian or Finn. So a shorter calendar certainly doesn’t mean less entertainment. If that minimum of fifteen races can happen, history suggests we won’t have an inferior show.

The problem though is fitting all of them in. At the time of writing, Canada is due to host the first round – on the 14th of June. Let’s be optimistic and assume Canada can go ahead. If all subsequent races were able to run on their set dates, we’d have a fourteen race calendar.

Six of the first eight races are currently postponed, not cancelled. Twenty total rounds would be fantastic. But those six need to slot in somewhere.

The European summer break in August could accommodate two races. Logic would suggest the Dutch, Spanish or Azerbaijan rounds due to the geographic proximity of the countries.

Great in theory – but Baku needs to lock a section of the city down to host the street race. Committee meetings, council approvals, and so on. Also, ironically, European doubleheaders are more complicated in setup than flyaways because of the enormous motor homes that only get used in Europe.

China, Bahrain, and Vietnam need to slot in at some point too, each with its own weather considerations. Bahrain has high daily temperatures in the mid-high 30°Cs in September & October while the Asian races have a rainy season to consider. We’ve seen many monsoon affected Chinese Grand Prix before.

Vietnam has the same street race concerns as Azerbaijan. Closing off any part of any capital city for multiple days is no easy task. In short, Liberty Media and the race organisers have a mammoth challenge ahead of them.

Away from the location shenanigans, what of the drivers and teams? As already mentioned, financially, this year is going to be difficult for all. For Red Bull, Mercedes, Renault and so on, F1 is part of a much broader business. For Williams, Racing Point, and McLaren though, F1 is the main reason they exist.

As such, I expect a widening in the performance gap between the haves and have-nots following months without revenue. That being said, I imagine every team have their top designers poring over their rivals’ pre-season testing photos. The Mercedes DAS invention will surely get replicated across the paddock.

In regular seasons there are mere weeks between pre-season and the first race. This season will have months. We could see the extra design time result in a grid of near-identical cars.

For the drivers, perhaps the changes won’t be so significant. They will go to the same races, probably at just different times of the year. When the season is in full swing, things will seem normal.

What will be unique, however, is the first race weekend, as drivers will go into the first practice session with a car they haven’t driven for months. And one that will feasibly be a drastic change from the Barcelona test.

Eighteen drivers may have a new DAS system to try for the first time, for example. But these guys are the best in the world. They’ll race whatever steering wheel is put in front of them.

As with everything in 2020, the one certainty is uncertainty. Some races will go ahead, and some won’t. We might see the shortest season in a generation, and we might not. The top teams may steam further ahead, or they might pack closer together. However this season pans out, the only thing I can say for sure is that F1 can’t start soon enough.

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2020 F1 Season in Doubt

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